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BYU/Hawaii U49.5 3.3* PLAY      
I originally leaned towards Hawaii on this one, but they are still much of an unknown under Norm Chow as he has totally shifted their offensive mentality and it’s been a slow start.  From years of operating in a spread offense that was able to put up points, Chow has inserted a pro style balanced attack with Duke transfer Sean Schroeder and although he’s getting better the results just are not there yet.  However, I love the under in this game.
 
I expect Hawaii to score between 6-14 points, 14 if they are lucky.  They are averaging just 2.5 possessions in the red zone this year while BYU is 10th in the nation only allowing opponents 2 trips in the red zone.  BYU is one of the best ranked 13th in 3rd down defense while Hawaii really has struggled converting.  BYU owns the 7th best total defense and Hawaii is slow out of the gate 102nd in total offense.  Norm Chow has had a ton of success in college turning QB’s into Heisman candidates and 1st round picks, but doing so at Hawaii is going to be a huge challenge and it’s not going to happen over night.
 
BYU on the flip side has had all kinds of issues on offense.  Hawaii was a very solid defense a year ago and they haven’t looked like it this year, but this is a game they can get back to their defensive mindset against a BYU team that has struggled.  It’s obvious senior QB Riley Nelson is not 100% with his back and I doubt he plays this week.  Overall BYU is averaging 4 red zone possessions a game and they may be without their starting QB with Taysom Hill subbing in.  Hill can run the ball and I think we should see plenty of the run slowing this game down quite a bit.  Don’t sleep on Hawaii they held USC to 4-14 on third down and were very good last year on third down.  BYU is only converting 39% of their third downs and suddenly they have become one dimensional.  I see BYU scoring 28-35 points here tonight max which puts us in a bracket of 34-49 points in my opinion both defenses step up tonight in an ugly game.  The under is 8-1 in BYU’s last 9 Friday night games.

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